Authoritarian Ambitions and Regional Instability: The Looming War between Ethiopia-Eritrea
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It is increasingly crystal clear that war between Eritrea and Ethiopia is inevitable. General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a vice president of the former Tigray interim administration, recently stated that the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is imminent and could erupt at any moment. Both dictatorial regimes may use war as a strategy for survival and to suppress the genuine demands of their people. In 2018, Isaias Afewerqi and Abiy Ahmed’s regime formed a temporary unholy alliance to weaken the Tigray region’s political economy, believing Tigray posed a threat to their regional hegemony. With Tigray weakened, it was only a matter of time before both forces entered into conflict. Credible reports suggest that both the Isaias and Abiy Ahmed regimes have committed ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity, and war crimes against the Tigray people, including acts that could be considered genocide, yet have gone unnoticed by the international community. In this upcoming war, both regimes are busy seeking allies and buying sophisticated weapons. Thus, analysis of the political and diplomatic capabilities of the two conflicting, wary regimes and their repercussions on Tigray is necessary.
Abiy Regime in Ethiopia
It is widely known that most hegemonic powers aligned with the Abiy Ahmed regime. The UAE, a trusted Western ally, maintains a friendly relationship with the Abiy regime, with rumors suggesting the UAE holds significant influence in Ethiopian politics. Speculations also suggested that Saudi Arabia may support Eritrea due to a deal regarding the port of Assab. Saudi Arabia facilitated the signing of the Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afewerqi. Among the unspecified agreement packages signed before the king of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh may be weakening the political and military dominance of the Tigray region.
The UAE played a role in brokering the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Abiy Ahmed for the short-lived peace deal between the two regimes. As a significant player in the Red Sea arena, Saudi Arabia cannot allow Ethiopia to become a major player in the Red Sea. However, Saudi Arabia, as the fourth-largest investor in Ethiopia, may be reluctant to support Eritrea, given its strong ties to the West and desire to remain neutral.
The Abiy Ahmed regime struggles to maintain control over Ethiopia, facing opposition from groups like FANO, TPLF, and OLF. The regime’s economic capacity is declining, with an unstable economy and growing discontent among citizens. Despite its shortcomings, the regime can leverage existing resources for war, supported by various USA, European, and Arab countries due to its strategic importance. This leverage could provide substantial diplomatic and military assistance for its war against the Isaias regime.
The Abiy regime has several reasons to wage war against the Isaias regime, including the occupation of territories by the Eritrean forces and support for groups like FANO and TPLF seeking to overthrow Abiy Ahmed. In addition, the regime may wage war to counter the popular violence in the country due to its repressive nature and worsening situation of citizens’ lives. Reclaiming the Assab port could rally support from Ethiopians at home and abroad, as highlighted in Abiy Ahmed’s recent speech, “Access to the Red Sea is an existential matter for Ethiopia.”
Isaias Regime in Eritrea
The Isaias regime is an established dictatorial regime that is widely unpopular in Western countries. It is known for its brutal treatment of citizens, including torture, detention, and forced military conscription. Consequently, many Eritreans, especially the youth, are fleeing the country, seeking refuge in US and European countries, often taking dangerous routes to escape. This exodus is causing significant issues not only in Eritrea but also in the countries where the refugees seek asylum. To address the migration crisis and disgraceful dictator of this day, many nations and famous former Western diplomats are urgently calling for the removal of the Isaias regime.
The Isaias regime contributed a paramount role in assisting Al-Burhan’s government to defeat Hamiti. Thus, the government of Al-Burhan is indebted to the Isaias regime. However, Al-Burhan’s government has hostility with the Abiy Ahmed regime because of siding with the Hamiti during the active war in Sudan. Conversely, Al-Burhan’s government faces unending internal opposition and is a war-torn nation with limited resources, making it challenging to fully support the Isaias regime.
Egypt is another potential ally of the Isaias regime, as it wants to weaken Ethiopia and prevent it from controlling the Red Sea arena due to Nile River issues. It has repeatedly stated that it does allow Ethiopia to have control over the Red Sea. Fearing the risks of damaging its diplomatic ties with US and European countries, it may offer covert support to the Isaias regime. Thus, the Isaias regime cannot get the help it intends to get from Egypt.
FANO, a group that has disrupted Abiy Ahmed’s rule in the Amhara region, could also align with the Isaias regime. However, FANO lacks cohesive leadership, making it susceptible to bribery from the Abiy Ahmed regime.
The TPLF, which ruled Ethiopia for twenty-seven years, is unwelcome by the Western countries due to its strong ties with China and attachment to Marxist-Leninist ideology. After its removal from Ethiopian politics by public riot, it was stationed in the Tigray region. After the devastating war in the Tigray region and the signing of the Pretoria peace agreement, the TPLF has divided into two factions. The conservative faction of the regime and its affiliated army leaders assumed power by toppling the interim administration by force. These irresponsible acts of the TPLF faction and the senior army leaders have complicated the problems of the war-torn Tigray. Opposition parties in Tigray and former interim president of the region, Ato Getachew Reda, have repeatedly accused the TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael and certain military leaders of establishing unofficial ties with the regime of Isaias Afwerki. However, the accused faction has denied these allegations. The Isaias regime seems to have not been relieved by the division of the TPLF and Tigray army and the decline of landslide acceptance from Tigray people. The Abiy regime has succeeded in creating divisions not only in the TPLF but also in the Tigray army. The Abiy regime will not go to war with the Isaias regime without ensuring full control of Tigray and the Tigray army.
Tigray Region: Game Changer in Abiy and Isaias Fight
The lingering conflict, which began in 2020 by the Eritrean and Ethiopian regimes, heavily damages Tigray. It resulted in the influx of a huge number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Tigray and forced many others to flee to Sudan as refugees. The people of Tigray have been yearning for justice for all kinds of atrocities committed against them. It is also highly committed to seeing the full implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) to secure its occupied territories by Eritrean and Amhara forces. However, the current governance system in the Tigray region has collapsed due to weak cooperation between the interim administration and security forces and the internal division among the political elites. This will open a fertile ground for the enemy regimes to make Tigray a battlefield. This will result in another kind of forced displacement, migration, humanitarian disaster, and protracted civil wars for the already war-affected region of Tigray. The war will have far-reaching security consequences for the Horn of Africa, a region where global superpowers are increasingly drawn into proxy conflicts.
