Eritrea: Key player in the geopolitical gamble at the Horn
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Amid growing tensions and security risks at the Horn of Africa, Eritrea, with its strategically important coastal points on the Red Sea and a perceived lack of conflict, is emerging as important player in the region.
Across the Horn of Africa, geopolitical interests of various countries continue to cause tensions and conflict as part of the growing competition for political influence over the region.
In its own right, the small country of Eritrea appears to be gaining in importance within this context: The autocratic state run by long-standing ruler Isaias Afewerki controls strategically important coastal points on the Red Sea, especially with its ports of Assab and Massawa.
In July, a series of diplomatic consultations in Cairo involving regional powers like Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea, and a high-ranking US envoy highlighted Eritrea's growing role in helping to coordinate approaches to resolving serious security challenges in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and to facilitate trade.
Eritrea's unique location along this maritime route is notably becoming more and more strategic in light of international trade conflicts. The small nation's coastline near the Bab-al-Mandab Strait stretches for more than 1,000 kilometers (621.4 miles), bordering Sudan to the northwest and Djibouti to its southeast.
But Eritrea's main strategic importance relies on who is on the other side of the strait, which at its narrowest point measures fess than 30 kilometers.
A small country at a strategically important location
"Yemen lies on the other side of the Red Sea, which makes Eritrea's location particularly interesting, as Yemen is in a state of crisis and maritime security in the region is at risk," Abdurahman Sayed, director of the Horn of Africa Centre for Regional Integration (CRI) in London, told DW.
"The only safe route in this area runs through Eritrea, where there are currently no security concerns."
The Houthi terrorist militia, propped up by Iran, have been attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea from the Yemeni coastline.
For the past ten years, Yemen has also been witnessing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises in its midst: Ongoing violence, economic collapse, droughts and floods have exacerbated the suffering in the country, according to a report published by the UN Refugee Agency last month.
Sayed meanwhile emphasizes that in Eritrea, the strong dictatorship entrenched for decades does not tolerate any type of dissent. In many international freedom indexes, the African nation often only comes second to North Korea.
Since the country was officially founded 32 years ago, there have been no elections in the one-party state under long-time ruler Afewerki.
A unique sense of stability — for now
But this is also exactly why there are no violent conflicts in the country. Compared to other players in the broader region like Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen, Eritrea appears to be an island of peace where it is easy to do business.
"For this reason, all countries — including regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which controls the Suez Canal — want to maintain stable relations with Eritrea," Sayed highlights.
At the same time, this could eventually prove to be the country's Achilles' heel: "The country is ruled by a single man, and there are no constitutional institutions. That makes the state very vulnerable should this strongman be removed from power," says Sayed.
There is no strong figure in the 80-year-old autocrat's inner circle seen as a clear successor. This has raised some concern that the security situation could collapse once the president might no longer be in power, according to Sayed.
Alternative to the Strait of Hormuz
Still, Eritrea continues to exert its influence as the Red Sea has now emerged as one of the the most important sea route in the world, especially for the Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, according to Sayed.
The war with Iran has further reinforced the nation's position, as this crisis has once again showed the central geopolitical importance of maritime chokepoints such as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
One viable alternative, should the Strait of Hormuz remain repeatedly blocked, would be for these Gulf nations and their partners to find routes via Saudi ports located further up on the Red Sea.
While the Saudis have pipelines running from some of the interior regions of the country from where oil is extracted and produced to the port of Yanbu-Al-Bahr on the Red Sea, this alternative route could easily be compromised when it comes to security, potentially driving up oil prices even higher than what they currently are.
"For this reason, Eritrea today is of great strategic importance. This has been the case for centuries and will continue to be the case," Sayed emphasizes.
Meanwhile, Eritrea's neighbors, particularly landlocked Ethiopia, are fighting hard to maintain access to the Red Sea as a trade route, Sayed adds, in particular for oil exports from the Horn of Africa to the rest of the world, especially to Europe and the Americas.
For decades, Djibouti has dominated regional trade logistics as Ethiopia's most important seaport partner, while Eritrea has been sidelined economically.
But Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has for years been demanding sovereign access to the sea — more than three decades after the country's split with Eritrea: when Eritrea gained its independence in 1993, Ethiopia lost its direct access, and has since been relying on its neighbors for all its sea trade.
However, maintaining a sense of neutrality and balance is proving to be a walk on a tightrope: Earlier 2026, the fragile relations with between Ethiopia and Eritrea's Asmara region had already threatened to escalate amid a dispute over Ethiopia's access to the maritime trade route.
"The key context for Eritrea's recent strategic maneuvers in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea is the escalating tensions with Ethiopia," says Michael Woldemariam, a researcher at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and the Atlantic Council.
"Asmara is seeking to forge partnerships that can serve as a counterweight to Addis Ababa. Its recent diplomatic outreach to Egypt, Somalia, the United Arab Emirates' armed forces, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopian opposition groups, and even the US should be viewed against this backdrop," he tells DW.
Meanwhile, a new trade corridor on the Red Sea is also taking shape: In May 2026, Eritrea and Egypt signed an agreement to establish direct freight connections between Egyptian and Eritrean ports on the Red Sea in order to expand independent trade and supply chains in the region.
A grave record of human rights violations
Still, there are no longterm guarantees with Eritrea, since the country's short history is almost entirely marked by violence, resulting in many people seeking a better life elsewhere.
"The first people fled Eritrea for Sudan in 1967 to escape [former Ethiopian ruler] Haile Selassie's imperial army. In the 1980s, people fled in large numbers from the Ethiopian military dictatorship. Since 2001, people have once again been fleeing in large numbers from human rights violations, military service, war, and a lack of prospects," says Magnus Treiber, a migration researcher specializing in the Horn of Africa at the Institute of Ethnology at the University of Munich.
"The causes of flight have hardly changed. However, since the European Union now offers virtually no opportunities to seek asylum, Eritreans are now fleeing all over the world."
At least 700,000 people have left the country since its founding, which is about a fifth of its total population. The country's population growth meanwhile is under 2% — a low number compared to many countries in the region.
Edited by: Sertan Sanderso
