Compulsory national service drives more young Eritreans to seek refuge in Kenya
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The number of Eritrean refugees and asylum seekers in Kenya nearly doubled in 2025, according to the 2026 Economic Survey released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The report shows the Eritrean refugee population increased by 99.8 percent, from 3,259 in 2024 to 7,839 in 2025. While several factors contribute to migration from Eritrea, compulsory national service remains one of the most frequently cited reasons why many young Eritreans decide to leave their country and seek protection abroad.
Eritrea requires most men and women to undertake national service. The government maintains that the program is essential to national defense, self-reliance, and nation-building, particularly given the country's history of conflict and continuing security concerns in the Horn of Africa. Officials argue that national service has helped strengthen national unity and protect Eritrea's sovereignty.
Critics, however, argue that the programme has become one of the country's strongest drivers of migration. Leading international watchdogs, including Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Eritrea, have labeled the indefinite nature of the service as a form of state-sanctioned forced labor. Although Eritrean law sets the duration of national service at 18 months, these organizations report that many conscripts serve for far longer, with some remaining trapped in military or civilian assignments for years. Young Eritreans say the uncertainty over when service will end, combined with limited economic opportunities and restrictions on overseas travel, has persuaded many to seek a future elsewhere.
Eritrean authorities reject these human rights assessments entirely. Eritrean Minister of Information Yemane Ghebremeskel has repeatedly defended the system, stating that Western organizations and external critics mischaracterize a vital civic duty. According to Asmara, the national service program is a legal requirement designed to foster national unity and guard against regional threats, specifically highlighting past conflicts with Ethiopia—and the government attributes the youth exodus to politically motivated human trafficking networks rather than internal policy failures.
To understand why Asmara maintains such a rigid grip on its population, one must look at the nature of conflict involving Eritrea, which operates on two distinct fronts: deep-seated external regional rivalries and severe internal political suppression. Eritrea's modern history is fundamentally defined by its volatile relationship with its massive southern neighbor, Ethiopia. Following a grueling 30-year war of independence that ended in 1993, Eritrea severed ties with Ethiopia. However, unresolved border demarcations triggered the catastrophic Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998–2000) over contested territories like the town of Badme. The conflict left an estimated 70,000 to 100,000 dead and locked both nations into a bitter, two-decade "no war, no peace" stalemate.
While a historic 2018 peace agreement between Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed temporarily thawed relations, the truce was short-lived. Eritrea heavily intervened in the brutal Tigray War (2020–2022), aligning with the Ethiopian federal military to fight their mutual enemy, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Following the 2022 Pretoria Peace Accord, the alliance collapsed. Relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa have since fractured over growing anxiety regarding Ethiopia's diplomatic push to reclaim direct commercial and military access to the Red Sea, raising fears of an annexation attempt on Eritrea's southern ports like Assab. Both governments also accuse one another of backing hostile domestic rebel groups to destabilize the other from within, forcing Eritrea to extend its general military mobilization.
Domestically, Eritrea operates as a highly centralized, single-party authoritarian state. There are no national elections, no independent judiciary, no free press, and no recognized opposition parties. Because the state views itself as constantly encircled by existential threats, any domestic dissent or attempt to evade the national draft is treated as a national security violation, frequently resulting in arbitrary, indefinite detention.
While international critics heavily scrutinize Eritrea, compulsory national service is not unique to the Horn of Africa. Dozens of countries worldwide mandate military or civic service to address unique defense requirements, regional flashpoints, or demographic realities. The primary distinction is that while most nations enforce strictly timed, highly regulated, and well-compensated cycles, Eritrea’s system lacks a predictable end date.
A look at how other global powers manage compulsory service highlights these differences. For instance, South Korea enforces an 18-to-21-month draft for males to maintain high readiness against the unresolved frozen conflict and nuclear threat from North Korea along the DMZ. Similarly, Israel mandates 32 months of service for males and 24 months for females, driven by immediate, high-intensity defense doctrines. In Southeast Asia, Singapore enforces a 22-to-24-month draft for males under a doctrine of "Total Defense" to ensure the small city-state possesses a formidable reserve capability for civic deterrence.
Meanwhile, Taiwan enforces a 12-month draft for males, which was recently extended from 4 months to counter escalating geopolitical friction across the Taiwan Strait. In contrast to these timed cycles, North Korea mandates up to 10 years for males and 5 to 7 years for females. Driven by the regime’s "Songun" (military-first) policy, it represents the longest mandatory draft in the world and mirrors the indefinite structural pressure felt by young conscripts in Eritrea.
For many of those who leave, the journey is neither simple nor legal. Eritrea tightly controls the issuance of passports and exit visas, particularly for citizens of national service age. As a result, many young Eritreans cross the country's borders through irregular routes into neighbouring countries, most commonly Ethiopia in previous years and, in some cases, Sudan. From there, they continue south through the region before entering Kenya, where they apply for asylum or refugee status. A smaller number who obtain the necessary travel documents are able to travel by air.
Kenya has become an attractive destination because of its relative political stability, established refugee protection framework and partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The country also offers greater access to education, healthcare and opportunities to earn a livelihood than many refugees find elsewhere in the region. Nairobi's established Eritrean community has further encouraged new arrivals by providing support and helping newcomers settle.
Kenyan authorities have acknowledged the changing migratory landscape. Speaking on the country’s broader demographic shifts, Macdonald Obudho, the Director-General of the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), noted that incorporating detailed refugee data into the annual Economic Survey is essential for regional security and fiscal planning. Meanwhile, officials within Kenya's Refugee Affairs Secretariat (RAS), which oversees registration alongside the UNHCR, have pointed out that while Kenya remains committed to its humanitarian obligations, the rapid influx places a heavy burden on urban infrastructure and social amenities.
Regional developments have also influenced migration patterns. Conflict in Sudan has disrupted traditional refugee routes and displaced Eritreans who had previously sought refuge there, while changing dynamics in the Horn of Africa have prompted many to move onward to Kenya in search of greater security and stability.
Source: The Kenyan Diaspora Media
