Ethiopia escalates in Sudan as Horn tensions edge toward open war
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Ethiopia’s increasing intervention comes amid setbacks for the RSF and shifting alliances. If Ethiopia succeeds, it could become a regional power, bridging East Africa and West Asia. Failure could turn it into the next post-Yugoslavia.
Western alignment and imperial inheritance
Ethiopia has long balanced defiance with dependence. It was one of only two African states to avoid formal colonization during the 1884–85 Berlin Conference. Yet its sovereignty survived through tactical partnerships with European powers.
With the help of European weapons and advisors in the late 19th century, the Ethiopian empire expanded into territory inhabited by Oromo (Oromia) and Somali people (Ogaden). When rebellion broke out in Ogaden (the Dervish Movement), Ethiopia conspired with Britain to quell the uprising and divide the land.
The 1960s brought
Following 11 September 2001, Ethiopia again became central to US security strategy in the Horn. Washington directed hundreds of millions of dollars in military and counterterrorism assistance to Addis Ababa. In 2006, Ethiopian forces invaded Somalia with US backing, toppling the Islamic Courts Union and laying the groundwork for the prolonged Al-Shabaab insurgency, a Somali extremist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
A fractured neighborhood
The cozy relationship with the west now faces setbacks. In 2021, the US imposed sanctions on Ethiopia, allegedly for human rights violations during the Tigray War. Of course, the US cares little about human rights. Perhaps Washington saw Ethiopia as a destabilizing force in the region. Regardless, Addis Ababa had to look elsewhere for support.
Ethiopia had to find an ally that aligned with its policy towards neighboring Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan. With Eritrea, historic animosity and border disputes have created a bitter rivalry. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of backing rebels in the Amhara region and deploying troops on its territory. Rhetoric in Addis Ababa has periodically invoked Red Sea access, including reference to Assab Port – claims that carry no legal basis under international law.
Somalia is another longstanding rival. The 16th-century Ethiopian–Adal war and the 1977–78 Ogaden war remain foundational memories. Ethiopia frames its involvement in Somalia through the threat posed by Al-Shabaab. Strategically, however, Addis Ababa has little interest in a strong Mogadishu capable of reviving territorial claims over the Ogaden.
Sudan and Ethiopia have also butt heads, ever since the 1850s Mahdist State War. The Derg supported South Sudan separatists, and in the 1990s, at Washington’s urging, Ethiopia joined the Front Line States Strategy against Sudan.
Relations improved in the 2000s, but worsened as Ethiopia began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Sudan, along with Egypt, has complained that the GERD will lead to less water to the Nile, reducing agricultural output. Ethiopia considers it a sovereign development project and a pillar of national legitimacy.
Who would provide Ethiopia with the support it needed? China was one alternative, given its established relationship. Beijing accounts for half of Ethiopia’s foreign direct investment and provides training for the army.
But it does not share the same alignment when it comes to Ethiopia’s neighbors. In fact, China was one of the only countries that provided support to Eritrea during the war of independence. In 2021, Eritrea signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China also has close relations with Somalia, given Taiwan’s support for Somaliland. Likewise, Russia has been working with Sudan since 2020 to build a naval base, and Eritrea was one of the few countries to support the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Neither power offers the partisan security alignment Addis Ababa now seeks.Enter the UAE.
renewed uprisings in Eritrea – then federated and later annexed – and in the Ogaden. Israel played a decisive role, providing counterinsurgency training against these largely Muslim regions, which Tel Aviv viewed as potential gateways for Arab nationalist influence.
The US provided support, given that rival Somalia was allied with the USSR. After the 1974 revolution installed the Marxist-Leninist Derg, Washington distanced itself. Israel, however, maintained covert cooperation. When the Derg collapsed in 1991, Eritrea moved toward independence, which it formally achieved in 1993.
