Eritrea is uniquely situated to help Israel, in Africa and beyond

Iran continues to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Iran has built a stronghold in the region, an arc of influence stretching from Eritrea to Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti. It is leveraging Islamist militias in failed states, such as Yemen, Sudan and Somalia. These groups do not act for Iran’s sake; they do so to seize and maintain power within their own failed states. For these Islamists, attacking Israel is the easiest and surest path to legitimacy.

Iran is also allying with dictators who share its anti-Western narrative, such as the Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki. This network represents one of the greatest emerging threats to Israel’s security, yet Israel remains largely disengaged from the region, effectively self-isolating.

Among the key developments:

• Eritrea: The dictator has been an Iranian ally since the early 2000s, and he is cooperating with Iran in Sudan today.
• Yemen: Iran controls Yemen through the Houthis, supported by the Eritrean dictator.
• Sudan: Islamist factions, backed by the Eritrean dictator and aligned with Iran, are overtaking the country.
• Somalia: Iran is expanding its influence through the Houthis’ Al-Shabab network; the Eritrean dictator has supported Al-Shabab since 2006.
• Djibouti: Its dictator blocked U.S. operations against the Houthis, while China now exerts significant influence, aligning with Iran.

Israel is now exposed on its southern flank by a chain of hostile actors, and the threats include:

• Disruption of Red Sea shipping routes.
• Missile attacks against Israel, causing civilian terror and hitting strategic targets.
• Forced defense spending into billions, which is not hermetic.
• Limited offensive options and international condemnation.
• Sudan’s proximity, multiple jihadist militias and advanced military-industrial capabilities.
• Iran has put enormous pressure on Egypt via the Houthis, and it will leverage the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan to further blackmail Cairo, creating a more dangerous situation for Israel.
• The Gulf states, already deterred by the Houthis, will face greater pressure if another Iranian-backed Islamist group takes control of Sudan, further undermining the Abraham Accords. This is why the United Arab Emirates is trying to prevent it, backing the Rapid Support Forces, unfortunately, without support from Israel or America.

It is not a question of if, but when Sudan will be captured by Islamists aligned with Iran. Eritrea’s geography gives its dictator veto power over Sudan because Port Sudan, the country’s only logistical lifeline, and the road from the port to Khartoum pass near Eritrea’s border. The Eritrean dictator and Iran can easily blackmail Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), by leveraging the Eastern Sudan Beja tribes supporting Islamist militias within the SAF to seize control.

While Iran builds alliances with Islamist militias and dictators, Israel isolates itself from people who share “Orit,” an ancient biblical text of Ethiopian Jews, and a cultural, historical and strategic affinity, the overwhelming majority indigenous Tigrinya nation of Eritrea, the only nation in black Africa with no tribal or clan structure. Honestly, this is difficult to understand.

Eritrea is entering a period of inevitable change. Israel must not miss this moment. The dictator is old, ill and deeply unpopular, remaining in power mainly through absolute control of the media, narrative and isolation. Israel cannot simply sit back; it must play a role in shaping the transition.

Turkey is supporting the Eritrean Muslim Brotherhood minority, even though they have little chance of success. Meanwhile, Iran continues to cooperate with the dictator and his cronies. Israel should work with the Tigrinya nationalists, who are highly organized, enjoy widespread popular support and maintain a clandestine presence within the Eritrean army—and whose success is almost certain. The stakes are too high to ignore.

Eritrea, today the de facto nation-state of the Tigrinya, should become an official nation-state that prioritizes economic prosperity, the dignity of its citizens and democracy. An official Tigrinya nation-state will need Israel’s technology, expertise, capital, markets, networks and more to industrialize, urbanize and digitalize its coastal areas.

In return, Eritrea can offer Israel:

• A genuine people-to-people relationship with Israel. In contrast, although Israel maintains a cold peace with Egypt and Jordan, the overwhelming majority of Egyptians and Jordanians are opposed to Israel.
• Defeat the Houthis through a ground offensive, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops. Eritrea is just behind Turkey in army size and stabilizes Yemen, Sudan, Ethiopia and the Red Sea region.
• Serve as Israel’s anchor in the Red Sea to contain Iran, and Israel can become a reliable partner to the United States in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, particularly against China. Israel proved its reliability in the Cold War; it can do the same in the emerging strategic contest.
• Act as Israel’s gate to Africa.
• The industrialization, urbanization and digitalization of Eritrea’s coastal area offer abundant investment opportunities to Israeli businesses within a two-hour flight.

This opportunity may seem too good to be true. Yet there is no risk for Israel, the cost is minimal, and the potential gains are extraordinary. And there is no reason why Israel should not pursue it.