Ethiopia at the Crossroads : Trump’s Eritrea Outreach, Italian Moves in Addis, and What the Future Demands
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For Ethiopia, these developments are more than external news. They are signals that the next 12 to 24 months will determine whether Ethiopia solidifies its sovereignty and economic ambitions or slips into a multi-front crisis.
Trump’s Letter to Eritrea: A Geopolitical Spark
On July 30, 2025, Donald Trump sent a letter to Isaias Afwerki, calling for a new era of U.S.–Eritrean friendship based on mutual respect and truth. While Trump holds no formal office, his influence on U.S. foreign policy, especially if he returns to power in 2025, is significant.
Why it matters for Ethiopia
Legitimization of Eritrea
The letter signals that a future U.S. administration might rehabilitate Eritrea’s international image, despite allegations of crimes against humanity in Tigray.
Eritrea’s leverage grows
If Eritrea believes it has U.S. sympathy, it may escalate interference in Tigray or harden its stance on Red Sea access negotiations.
Isolation risk
Ethiopia, already under pressure from Western institutions, may find itself boxed diplomatically if Eritrea aligns more closely with the Trump-led U.S., Russia, or Gulf powers.
Meloni’s Visit: Italy’s Calculated Engagement
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s late July visit to Addis Ababa was no ordinary diplomatic stop. It was part of Italy’s Mattei Plan, a strategy to deepen ties with African nations not through aid, but through investment, mutual development, and migration control.
Why Italy came
Strategic migration buffer
Ethiopia is vital to reducing refugee flows toward Europe.
Energy and food diplomacy
With climate threats rising, Italy wants to help Ethiopia develop self-sufficiency in food and renewable energy.
Positioning against China
Italy seeks to counterbalance growing Chinese influence in Ethiopia’s infrastructure, telecom, and finance sectors.
What Ethiopia should recognize
Italy is not just offering money. It’s offering partnership. If used wisely, this could help Ethiopia build long-term stability and infrastructure while diversifying away from aid dependency and geopolitical gambling.
Internal Fractures: Tigray, the Red Sea, and the Looming Crisis
Ethiopia’s internal fragility is at the core of everything
Tigray power struggle
The ousting of Getachew Reda and the split within the TPLF has reopened the risk of civil war inside Tigray. Some rebel factions are reportedly backed by Eritrea.
Border tensions
Eritrea has mobilized troops near the border. Ethiopia has moved forces into the area. Officially, war is not declared. But unofficially, both sides are preparing.
The Red Sea obsession
Ethiopia’s insistence on access to the sea is strategic, but how it’s pursued will decide whether the region remains in peace or plunges into conflict.
What Ethiopia Must Do Before It’s Too Late
Here is a sober assessment of the path forward
Avoid War with Eritrea at All Costs
Ethiopia may be tempted to confront Eritrea militarily to secure sea access or punish interference in Tigray. But war would destroy the economy, trigger massive humanitarian displacement, and invite foreign intervention from Egypt, Gulf countries, or others.
Instead, Ethiopia should work through African Union mediated talks with Red Sea nations on port-sharing, trade corridors, and infrastructure co-investments.
Control the Tigray Crisis Now
The split in the TPLF must not evolve into a civil war. The federal government should avoid overmilitarization of the region, appoint a neutral and respected interim body to oversee elections in Tigray, and allow independent monitors to assess alleged abuses, both past and present, to build internal trust and international legitimacy.
Balance Foreign Relations: Italy, China, and the Gulf
Ethiopia must avoid the mistake of over-reliance on one bloc. Instead
With Italy and the EU
Deepen cooperation on green energy, food security, and migration
With China, push for more equitable investment terms, especially in telecom and rail
With UAE and Saudi Arabia, Expand trilateral economic zones, especially in agro-export and manufacturing
Rebuild International Trust
The image of Ethiopia, once seen as Africa’s rising star, is fading. The country must improve transparency in governance, empower institutions that support federalism and minority rights, and push for a Horn of Africa Red Sea Pact involving Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia to settle access and trade issues multilaterally.
The Future: Risk or Renaissance
Ethiopia has three futures
Path One
Path of War
Description
War with Eritrea, unresolved Tigray conflict, rising inflation, and international isolation
Outcome
National collapse or state fragmentation
Path Two
Path of Diplomacy
Description
Red Sea negotiations, African Union mediation in Tigray, strategic alliances with Italy and Gulf
Outcome
Peace with growth and renewed global respect
Path Three
Path of Dependence
Description
Chasing foreign funding without reforms, growing Chinese debt, ignoring internal crises
Outcome
Slow decline into economic stagnation
Final Word
Ethiopia Must Choose Peace with Power. This is not 1998. The world is watching, and the stakes are higher. In a region plagued by coups, droughts, and global disinterest, Ethiopia remains a nation with unmatched history and unmatched potential.
To honor its past and protect its people, Ethiopia must think not like a desperate landlocked country but like a strategic African giant. That means peace, negotiation, balanced diplomacy, and internal reform.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
