Eritrea warns Ethiopia against ‘reckless’ push for Red Sea access

Afwerki is attempting to draw a red line, deterring Ethiopia from turning its attention to Eritrea if efforts to reach a maritime agreement with Somalia continue to falter. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hinted at the possibility of war to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure access to the Red Sea, in a sudden escalation that may reflect the interests of regional allies keen to pressure Addis Ababa.

The timing coincides with Ethiopia’s announcement that it has completed work on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and extended official invitations for its inauguration; moves perceived as a direct provocation by countries like Sudan and, especially, Egypt.

Afwerki’s use of sharp language revealed signs of a potentially broader escalation across the Horn of Africa, threatening to reignite a long-dormant crisis after years of fragile calm.

Should Eritrea’s stance move beyond rhetorical sabre-rattling, it could signal the contours of a conflict that has loomed over both nations for years, one previously contained through various means.

However, analysts argue that the current regional environment does not permit a new war, with no party, including Eritrea, having much to gain from a military confrontation. They suggest Afwerki may be seeking to reclaim the regional spotlight, having lost the prominence he once enjoyed. They note that Eritrea had previously signed a reconciliation agreement with Ethiopia, and that it would be against Asmara’s political and economic interests to unravel that deal.

Afwerki warned Ethiopia against pursuing war, calling its maritime ambitions “reckless.” He added: “If they [Ethiopia] think they can overwhelm Eritrean forces through human-wave attacks, they are mistaken.” He pointed to the complex nature of the shared border, Ethiopia’s population of over 100 million, and the country’s deepening internal divisions and economic crises.

In an interview with Eritrean state television (Eri-TV), Afwerki said: “Before dragging the people of Ethiopia into unwanted wars or using them for another political agenda, the country’s internal problems must be first addressed and solved,” as though Eritrea itself, which also experiences periodic internal tensions, is somehow insulated from the region’s wider unrest.

His remarks appear to pre-empt any Ethiopian attempt to reassert control over the Eritrean port of Assab, amid Addis Ababa’s growing desperation to secure a sea outlet. This comes as the memorandum of understanding it signed with Somaliland faces obstacles.

Somalia’s federal government in Mogadishu has opposed the agreement, a position backed by Cairo, which also rejected its technical and military implications. Turkey has since stepped in, overseeing negotiations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa that have thus far resulted in suspension of the deal and a conditional Ethiopian recognition of Somali territorial unity. In return, a compromise maritime access arrangement for Ethiopia is under discussion.